Intrade's State-by-State Predictions for the Presidential Election
If you want to follow the shifting fortunes of the US presidential candidates, as reflected in their state-by-state share prices on Intrade's prediction market, the US map at electoralmap.net provides a graphical picture that is updated at least weekly.The candidates' share prices reflect how the Intrade market participants collectively view John McCain's and Barack Obama's respective prospects for winning each state's electoral votes.
For example, if the price for Obama in a particular state is "50," this means that participants collectively view Obama's chances of winning the state as 50-50. If Obama's price is above "50," participants are giving Obama a better than even chance of winning the state. Conversely, if Obama's price is below "50," participants are giving Obama a better than even chance of losing the state.
You can view electoralmap.net maps dating back to May 24. If you want to watch how Intrade participants have shifted their state-by-state predictions, click on "animated map."
Labels: Prediction markets
posted by Karen Nelson @ 10:46 AM
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