!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-strict.dtd"> Streamline Training & Documentation: Prediction Markets vs. Pundits

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Prediction Markets vs. Pundits

As Paul Krugman points out in his blog, at least in the case of the New Hampshire primary, prediction markets trading on the basis of people's bets concerning who would win were no more prescient about the actual outcome than the pollsters and pundits who had Barack Obama coming out on top by several percentage points.

You can see charts for Iowa and New Hampshire contract prices for the major Democratic and Republican candidates here. The extreme volatility for Clinton and Obama in the January 7-9 timeframe is apparent.