How the Election Prediction Markets Fared
Now that the election is over, we can take a quick look at how various trading sites did in predicting the outcome. A sampling:- As the Wall Street Journal reports today, TradeSports on Friday was giving the Democrats only a 30% chance of winning the Senate. As Tuesday approached, the odds in favor of the Democrats increased, though not in steady fashion.
- To get an idea of the volatility of the betting on the outcome of the fight for control of the Senate, you can look at the graph of daily midnight closing prices provided by the Iowa Electronic Markets site.
- US News & World Report gives a compact rundown of what TradeSports and Washington Stock Exchange were predicting as 5:40 p.m. on Tuesday.
- CasualObserver.net touts its success in predicting the election results more accurately than the Rasmussen Reports poll. CasualObserver made its comparison as of Tuesday morning, i.e., in advance of release of any exit poll data and actual vote counts.
Labels: Prediction markets
posted by Karen Nelson @ 11:21 PM
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